Impact of Cenozoic sea-level fluctuations on passive margin stratigraphic architecture: Implications for underground hydrogen storage potential

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This study used forward stratigraphic modelling of the Hunter offshore margin in New South Wales to examine how Cenozoic sea-level changes shaped the layering of sediments on passive continental margins. The results show that warm 'greenhouse' periods produced thick, continuous sediment layers good for storing gases, while colder 'icehouse' periods produced thinner, stacked layers that could act as seals, with the transition occurring around 34 million years ago. This work suggests that past climate-driven sea-level patterns could help identify promising underground sites for hydrogen storage, even where subsurface data are limited.

Abstract. The global energy transition demands large-scale, long-duration storage, with underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in geological formations emerging as an important option. Passive continental margins host extensive Cenozoic successions that may represent significant UHS targets, yet predicting stratigraphic architecture in data-limited regions remains challenging. This study investigates whether the shift from low-frequency, low-amplitude to high-frequency, high-amplitude Cenozoic sea-level forcing systematically preconditioned passive-margin stratigraphy for UHS. Simulations of the Hunter offshore margin (NSW, Australia) reveal a fundamental contrast: greenhouse conditions promoted thicker (>25–50 m), laterally continuous, progradational packages with reservoir potential, whereas icehouse conditions generated vertically stacked, thinner (<25 m) units potentially suited for composite sealing systems, with the Eocene–Oligocene transition (∼34 Ma) separating these regimes. These findings suggest that sequential changes in sea-level forcing may have generated architectures favourable to reservoir and seal pairing and demonstrate that forward stratigraphic modelling provides a useful first-order screening approach where subsurface data are scarce.

Global map showing passive margins with thick sedimentary successions and greenhouse–icehouse regime shifts relevant to hydrogen storage potential.
Fig. 10. Global map showing the distribution of thick sedimentary successions (>2000 m) along passive continental margins (shaded areas), together with documented locations of greenhouse–icehouse depositional regime shifts (green triangles). Major coastal cities are indicated along these margins, highlighting the coincidence between large urban demand centres and sedimentary units with sufficient volumetric potential and thickness for underground hydrogen storage. Oil and gas fields along these coasts provide additional context on the presence of reservoir–seal systems and the potential for depleted oil and gas storage in these settings, as well as on subsurface data availability. This spatial overlap emphasises the strategic importance of passive margins as candidates for geological hydrogen storage close to centres of demand. Note: Oil and gas field locations from Ref. [89]; sediment thickness data from Ref. [90]; major coastal cities and population data from Ref. [91]; documented greenhouse–icehouse depositional regime shifts from Ref. [82]. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.) From Cherene et al. (2026), International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, reproduced under CC BY 4.0.

Cherene, R., Zahirovic, S., Salles, T., Ding, X., Bradshaw, M., Stephenson, M.H. and McManus, P., 2026. Impact of Cenozoic sea-level fluctuations on passive margin stratigraphic architecture: Implications for underground hydrogen storage potential. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 240, p.155377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.155377

Code and data: Zenodo: 10.5281/zenodo.20023698

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